Statistics and Data Science Seminar
Gib Bassett
Department Head, Department of Finance, UIC
Quantile Regression Modeling and Estimation for Paired Comparisons
Abstract: After a brief introduction to quantile regression and modeling the talk
will consider paired comparisons. The context is rating and ranking sports
teams based on game outcomes. The quantile regression approach includes the
standard model as a special case, while allowing for a richer set of
possible relationships between teams and outcomes. Compared to models that
focus on one part of a distribution, the quantile approach expresses
relationships that depend on the different parts of a distribution. We can
have "A better than B" based on the expected outcome, while at the same
time B is more likely to win the game. The ratings are defined as handicaps
that make handicap-adjusted outcomes of games evenly matched (where
"equally matched" depends on which property of the outcome distribution is
to be equalized). We consider connections to point spreads and odds
wagering as well as the roundness of a round robin.
There is Tea from 3:15pm.
Wednesday April 26, 2006 at 3:30 PM in SEO 512