Statistics and Data Science Seminar
Dr. William R. Porter
Abbott Laboratories
Design of Accelerated Thermal Degradation Experiments
Abstract: Accelerated testing of product quality attributes is an important tool used in
the development of new products. Many products fail to meet quality
specifications after storage for prolonged times due to degradation of the
materials used to manufacture the product. The time to failure is the shelf
life of the product. Thermal stress is often used as an accelerant to promote
degradation in a controlled manner to predict shelf life. The results of stress
degradation experiments are evaluated using the nonlinear Arrhenius kinetic
model. Historical methods of fitting the Arrhenius model to thermal degradation
experimental data, particularly the Garrett approach, will be discussed.
Optimal design of thermal degradation experiments from a theoretical basis has
been described in the literature but many practical pitfalls remain. Nonlinear
model design requires knowledge of the model parameters, crude estimates of
which can be obtained using a pilot experiment. Monte Carlo evaluation of the
design of a pilot experiment will be discussed, along with opportunities for
future development of practical designs for refining parameter estimates.
Drink, Cakes, ...
Wednesday October 19, 2005 at 3:30 PM in SEO 512