Special Colloquium
Timo Ehrig
Visiting Scholar UIC
The Framing Landscapes Model - Mapping the Structure of Ambiguity Reduction at Extended Uncertainty
Abstract: (joint work with L. Kauffman)
This workshop discusses and demonstrates a model that maps debates. Topics will include the logical/cognitive
structure of valuations of stocks at extended uncertainty by securities analysts.
Future estimates can only be declared as true/ false in hindsight and it is more precise to say that they were successful
or failed, as they are performative and actively influence the future. This modeling is not at the level of quantitative models
such as the Black-Scholes model, but rather at the level of making an image of on-going debates that have an effect on
the evolution of the market itself. This modeling does not take certainty as a prerequisite. Debates at extreme uncertainty
are characterized by sense making dynamics. Our model begins in the web of uncertain and fluctuating propositions of the
debate, takes a dynamic mathematical snapshot of this web, and allows the snapshot to evolve to extrema of a potential
function that we call its fixed points. The snapshots and the results of its evolution then amplify and effect the
original debate and give information about the structure of the market at that time.
Thursday November 8, 2007 at 3:30 PM in SEO 512